Sunday Play: Take the quick odds with Twilight Derby single

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Sunday Play: Take the short odds with Twilight Derby single


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3-year-olds are set to run 9 furlongs on turf within the Grade 2, $150,000
Twilight Derby at Santa Anita on Sunday. Betting-wise, this can be a robust one to
discover a longer worth as a result of the speedy favourite Clean Like Strait is most definitely the
finest horse.

Is Clean Like Straight bettable although, even at low odds? The reply is sure as a result of
of his type and skill to resist a quick tempo.

          Click on right here for Santa Anita Park Entries, Outcomes.

Clean Like Strait enters this race off a fast-pace situation wherein he contested
the tempo and pale to fourth within the American Turf Stakes (G2) at Churchill
Downs. Due to the quick tempo, the fade is forgivable as he did loads of
work early on earlier than the closers took benefit late.

Watch how the primary three horses separate from the pack.

American Butterfly and Sugoi initially lead the sector by way of a fast 23.04
opening quarter for the 1 1/16-mile distance.

From there, American Buttery tires on the within, whereas Sugoi and Clean Like
Strait hit the entrance collectively by way of a half-mile in an equally taxing 46.48 half-mile.
To again up the declare of a quick tempo, TimeformUS exhibits all 4 fractions in purple earlier than the ultimate time.

On the far flip, Clean Like Strait put away Sugoi and commenced to face the
oncoming problem of Area Move on the skin. However the quick early tempo took a
toll on each of them, as Area Move was not far behind, they usually grew to become targets for 2 late closers in Fancy
Liquor and Taishan.

Fancy Liquor and Taishan took over and ultimately accomplished the exacta, whereas Clean Like Strait pale to fourth. Nonetheless, Clean Like Strait’s
effort is notable as a result of he outlasted two pace horses and nonetheless had life within the stretch run.

Take a look at his tempo foe Sugoi. He folded to sixth within the American Turf, however went on to win two sturdy
allowance races at Churchill Downs on Sept. 24 and Keeneland solely yesterday. His sharp
type after the pace duel and fade provides a powerful trace that Clean Like Strait will fireplace as properly.

Tempo Makes the Race

Why? When horses undergo a head-to-head or three-way pace duel, it toughens
them up for any race with softer fractions. If Clean Like Strait can end
fourth after a suicidal tempo, how good will he be underneath a traditional tempo?

On paper, the tempo for the Twilight Derby seems reasonable.

Clean Like Strait may face some tempo adversity from Dominant Soul, who’s a
menace to safe the lead earlier than Clean Like Strait reaches it. However Dominant
Soul just isn’t in the identical league, and he tends to not set quick fractions
anyway. Clean Like Strait is meant to deal with him.

One other horse with pace is Margot’s Boy. This gelding normally travels at a
reasonable tempo although quite than run off uncontrollably. In current
races, he has been urgent or monitoring the chief quite than main.

Clean Like Strait ought to discover contesting the tempo with these two horses simpler
than Sugoi and American Butterfly. They could even let Clean Like Strait safe the lead our of worry of a pace duel.

Distance Query

With all that stated, there’s a query of whether or not Clean Like Strait can
deal with 9 furlongs. In 9 profession begins, this colt has by no means went
previous 1 1/16 miles.

In all chance, the additional distance just isn’t an enormous deal. Clean Like Strait’s
second dam Stunning Lil is an Aptitude half-sister to Dixie Dot Com, who ran
second within the 2001 Pacific Traditional (G1) at ten furlongs and received different route races. That could be a notable check in
his backside pedigree.

On prime, Midnight Lute just isn’t the best affect for longer routes.
Typically a short-winded sire on prime is offset by a stamina-oriented feminine
facet.

Plus, Clean Like Strait get the providers of prime turf jockey Umberto
Rispoli.

The Verdict

Clean Like Strait’s odds may fall to roughly 8/5 or so, however that’s arguably
a good deal. He’s in good type with wins within the La Jolla Stakes (G3) and Battle
Chant Stakes this yr. As said above, he’s possible to obtain a softer
tempo this time as properly.

Who will end second? Selecting a price horse to make use of beneath is hard with out seeing stay betting. But when second selection Area Move might get overwhelmed for the runner-up spot although, the exacta and trifecta may pay decently.

If Specific Practice handles the turf, he’s a candidate to complete second.

The Del Mar Derby (G2) runner-up Margot’s Boy figures to remain within the combine late,
even when he doesn’t win. He’s one other candidate for second.

Farmington Highway and Kiss Right this moment Goodbye are late closers who might choose off sufficient
horses to hit second or third, relying on the tempo.

The play is Clean Like Strait over Specific Practice or Margot’s
Boy. Upon stay wagering, nonetheless, the horses beneath might change after monitoring the possible exacta payoffs.

Regardless
of the horses within the second or third slots, it’s clear Clean Like
Strait is a standout. His closing odds won’t appear thrilling, however at even cash or greater he deserves the
prime spot in all wagers. 

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