When you guys missed me on Wednesday, don’t be concerned, I missed you too. I used to be desirous about you all day. When you’re questioning what I did with my off day, it largely concerned placing up my Christmas tree, which I believe is the earliest I’ve ever put it up.
Usually, I need to put up the tree on Sept. 1, however my spouse thinks that is ridiculous and that it should not go up till the Friday after Thanksgiving. When you’re questioning how we settled on Nov. 18, I don’t know, which is form of becoming, as a result of if I ever write a e book about marriage, it will likely be known as, “I don’t know what is going on on … however we’re having enjoyable.”
Talking of enjoyable, anybody who watches the Cardinals-Seahawks sport tonight goes to be having enjoyable as a result of these two groups have perfected the artwork of enjoying loopy video games. We’ll be speaking about that in at present’s publication, together with who the MVP frontrunner must be and who I believe is one of the best Tremendous Bowl wager proper now from a worth standpoint.
We’ll even be masking … you understand what, I’ll cease speaking about what we’re about to speak about and simply get to at present’s publication. As at all times, if you wish to share this text with everybody you understand, I cannot be offended. Simply simply click on right here to seize the hyperlink after which ship that hyperlink to everybody you understand.
1. At this time’s Present: Each day Fantasy recommendation for Week 11
Though my Christmas tree is now up, I am guessing Will Brinson’s is not, and that is as a result of I am fairly positive he has zero free time to get something finished on account of the truth that he hosts a day by day podcast. For Thursday’s pod, Brinson talked about one of the best day by day fantasy performs for Week 11 with fantasy gurus Heath Cummings and Frank Stampfl. The trio went over all one of the best fantasy choices for the 12 video games which are being performed on Sunday.
Through the podcast, the three guys provided their greatest worth performs for the week, so let’s take a fast take a look at these (These are guys you should buy for $4,000 or much less on Draft Kings).
- Brinson: Jets WR Denzel Mims ($3,500). Making an attempt to determine who’s going to be getting the ball within the Jets offense is almost not possible — I do not even assume the Jets know — however Brinson goes to take a flyer this week on Mims. One purpose the rookie is sensible is as a result of he is averaged 48.7 yards over in New York’s previous three video games and it is beginning to really feel like a breakout sport may very well be coming.
- Stampfl: Washington TE Logan Thomas ($3,300). Nobody benefitted extra from Alex Smith’s first begin of the season than Thomas, who caught 5 passes for a season-high 66 yards in Week 10. With Smith nonetheless underneath heart and Washington on the point of face a foul Bengals protection, these numbers might get even larger in Week 11.
- Cummings: Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant ($3,500). Final week, Stampfl instructed us to leap on Jakeem Grant and that recommendation paid off because the Dolphins receiver totaled 43 yards and an important landing in Miami’s win over the Chargers. This week, Cummings is protecting us on the Grant prepare. With Preston Williams nonetheless on injured reserve, Tua goes to wish somebody to throw the ball to and Grant looks like a wise wager.
To take heed to at present’s episode — and subscribe to the podcast — remember to click on right here.
2. Getting you prepared for Cardinals-Seahawks in Seattle
The final time we noticed the Seahawks and Cardinals on the identical area, it was one of the crucial bonkers video games of the 12 months, which I suppose really is not that stunning since each sport involving a minimum of one in every of these two groups finally ends up going bonkers. I imply, the Cardinals received on a Hail Mary in Week 10.
This can be a large sport for each groups, but it surely’s an particularly large sport for the Seahawks, as a result of in the event that they lose, it would successfully put them two video games behind the Cardinals within the division standings since Arizona can have the season-sweep. Being two video games behind somebody with six video games remaining undoubtedly is not very best.
My good buddy Jared Dubin put our deep-dive preview collectively right here at CBSSports.com, and this is how he sees the sport enjoying out:
- The Seahawks have the worst protection within the NFL and if they will win this week, they will should do the not possible: Cease Kyler Murray. Murray is on tempo for 4,260 passing yards and 32 touchdowns this season plus 1,086 speeding yards and one other 16 scores. The Seahawks could not cease him the primary time round and it is arduous to think about them doing any higher this time round.
- For the primary time all season, the Seahawks did not rating a minimum of 27 factors in a sport final week once they misplaced to the Rams 23-16. Do not take note of final week although, as a result of it is extremely unlikely this offense goes to sputter two weeks in a row. Wilson had an enormous sport the final time these two groups performed again in Week 7 (388 yards and three touchdowns) and it will not be stunning in any respect if he has one other large sport.
Dubin’s choose: Cardinals 31-27 over Seahawks.
You will get a full preview of the sport from Dubin by clicking right here.
When you’re considering betting on the sport, Tyler Sullivan has put collectively a full playing preview.
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: D.Ok. Metcalf complete receiving yards: Over 78.5 (-115): In 9 video games this season, Metcalf has gone over 78.5 yards a complete of seven occasions. To not point out, he’ll be trying to bounce again after recording simply 28 yards in Seattle’s Week 10 loss to the Rams.
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Russell Wilson to attain a TD and Seahawks win (+500): Final week, I gave you guys a kicking prop (Thanks once more to Rodrigo Blankenship for making me look clever), however this week, I am feeling frisky. For some purpose, I believe the Seahawks are going to win and I additionally assume that Russell Wilson goes to be on a private mission to hold them to victory. If Wilson scores a TD AND the Seahawks win, this prop pays out $500 on a $100 wager.
You’ll be able to take a look at Sullivan’s full playing preview by clicking right here.
My choose: Seahawks 34-27 over Cardinals (Dubin and I don’t agree on this sport, which is nice information for me, as a result of we additionally disagreed on final week’s sport. He took the Titans and I took the Colts).
3. NFL Week 11 picks
In case you have not observed, we like to make picks right here at CBS Sports activities. Two guys who nearly at all times do a very good job with their picks are Tom Fornelli and Jordan Dajani. They’re so good at picks that I would allow them to choose what I am consuming on Thanksgiving this 12 months. Dajani is at present 78-62-5 in opposition to the unfold on the season, and Fornelli writes our CBS Sports activities HQ PM version publication, which you’ll be able to subscribe to right here. When you’re into playing — and who’s not — that publication is loaded with picks from each sport, so it is best to undoubtedly subscribe.
With that in thoughts, let’s take a look at one choose from every man for Week 11:
- Dajani: Dolphins (-3.5) at Broncos. The Dolphins protection has been on hearth and it now will get to go up in opposition to a quarterback in Drew Lock who threw 4 interceptions in Week 10. From Dajani, “If I had to decide on a lock of the week, it is most likely the Dolphins.” I am offered. Dajani’s choose: Dolphins 28-20 over Broncos.
- Fornelli: Falcons (+5) at Saints. This level unfold did not transfer a lot after it turned obvious that Drew Brees would not be enjoying and though Fornelli likes the truth that Brees will not be enjoying — he is taking the Falcons to cowl — he is selecting Atlanta as a result of Matt Ryan has torched the Saints protection that previous couple of occasions these two groups have performed. Fornelli’s choose: Saints 27-24 win, however Falcons cowl.
For a take a look at Fornelli’s three “Finest Bets” for Week 11, remember to click on right here. When you’re searching for the remainder of Dajani’s Week 11 picks — he picks each sport — remember to click on right here.
4. Tremendous Bowl odds: Jets nonetheless alive, Colts really feel like greatest worth
You may not imagine this, however heading into Week 11, EVERY crew within the NFL nonetheless has an opportunity to win the Tremendous Bowl. Significantly, even the Jets might win it and that is as a result of they have not been eradicated from the playoff race but. Certain, they’d should win seven video games in a row simply to get into the playoffs with a 7-9 file, however crazier issues have occurred, and in 2020, I am simply not going to rule out something.
At 0-9, the Jets at present have the worst Tremendous Bowl odds and since none of us might be betting on them to win all of it, let’s take a look at the groups that at present have one of the best odds, through William Hill SportsBook:
1 Chiefs +350
2. Steelers +550
3. Saints +650
4. Buccaneers +900
5. Packers +900
6. Ravens +1000
7. Seahawks +1600
8. Rams +1800
T-9. Payments +2200
T-9. Cardinals +2200
Worst odds: Jets +400000 (Wager $100 to win $400,000)
Finest worth: Colts +2500
My first piece of recommendation right here is do not wager on the Jets though a $1 wager would pay out $4,000 in the event that they someway received.
Final week, I stated I might wager the Chiefs and though that is nonetheless true, it would get fairly boring round these components if I say the identical factor each week, so I’ll make two non-Chiefs observations about these odds. First, the Saints odds really acquired higher in comparison with final week though Drew Brees is probably going going to overlook a minimum of two weeks. Apparently, the oddsmakers in Vegas like Jameis Winston far more than the remainder of us. The opposite factor I observed about these odds is that one darkish horse I like ISN’T EVEN LISTED. The Indianapolis Colts at present have the eleventh greatest odds at +2500 and I believe that is a fantastic worth as a result of if we have realized one factor about profitable the Tremendous Bowl, it is that a fantastic protection can win you the title and the Colts have that.
5. MVP Watch: Not everybody loves Russell Wilson’s cooking
The Seahawks plan to “Let Russ Prepare dinner” seemed like a good suggestion to start out the season, however lately, it is beginning to really feel like Wilson’s kitchen is beginning to burn down. Via the primary six weeks of the season Wilson seemed like a lock to win the MVP, however over the previous 4 weeks, he is fully fallen aside with seven interceptions in 4 video games the place the Seahawks have gone 1-3.
With Wilson not wanting like one of the best quarterback within the NFL, you is likely to be questioning who’s on high of the MVP race proper now and since I used to be additionally questioning the identical factor, I made a decision to have some individuals vote on it. Our Jared Dubin rounded up a panel of specialists — to be trustworthy, it wasn’t a lot a panel because it was me, Wilson and Brinson — to vote on the MVP award heading into 11 weeks.
Though Wilson has struggled over the previous few weeks, he nonetheless ended up getting the second most votes from our panel. After all, with regards to the MVP race, second is actually simply the primary loser. There’s just one winner and proper now, we see that being Patrick Mahomes.
Here is a breakdown of our voting:
1. Patrick Mahomes: 20 factors
2. Russell Wilson: 14 factors
3. Kyler Murray: 12 factors
4. Aaron Rodgers: 10 factors
5. Tom Brady: Two factors
T-6. Josh Allen: One level
T-6. Dalvin Prepare dinner: One level
I personally voted Mahomes at one, so I am glad to see everybody agreed with me. When you’re questioning how Dalvin Prepare dinner acquired a vote or why Tom Brady ended up with two, you may see the reason for every of our MVP ballots by clicking right here.
6. Tua Tagovailoa making an attempt to do one thing no rookie QB has finished since 2004
It is not simple to win within the NFL as a rookie quarterback, though Tua Tagovailoa is managing to make it look simple. With Tua underneath heart, the Dolphins have now received three straight video games, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of if Miami beats the Broncos on Sunday, Tua will change into the primary quarterback in additional than 15 years to win his first 4 begins throughout his rookie 12 months.
A win over Denver would push Tua to 4-0. The final quarterback to start out his profession with 4 straight wins throughout his rookie 12 months was Ben Roethlisberger, who did it in 2004. The truth that no rookie QB has been in a position to pull off 4 straight wins to start out their profession in 16 years is form of loopy to consider, particularly when you think about that there have been a number of rookie quarterbacks in that span who went on to nice success with guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray (Bear in mind, this file solely applies to video games received throughout their rookie 12 months, so though somebody like Mahomes received the primary six begins of his profession, solely one in every of his wins got here when he was a rookie).
Here is a take a look at the rookie quarterbacks who’ve gotten off to one of the best begin within the Tremendous Bowl period:
1. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004: Began 13-0 with Steelers
2. Mike Kruczek, 1970: Began 6-0 with Steelers
3. Virgil Carter, 1968: Began 4-0 with Bengals
4. Phil Simms, 1979: Began 4-0 with Giants
And that is it. That is your complete checklist of rookie quarterbacks who received a minimum of their first 4 begins throughout their rookie 12 months. Not solely can Tua put himself on the checklist this week, however he might shoot as much as No. 2 on the checklist if he can win his subsequent three video games (Broncos, Jets, Bengals).
Sadly for Tua, he will not have the ability to catch Roethlisberger. Because the Dolphins solely have seven video games left on their common season schedule, one of the best Tua can do throughout his rookie 12 months is begin 10-0.
7. The Kicker!
Since I’ve no life exterior of this text, I typically spend most of my week going by means of kicker press conferences to see if anybody has something thrilling to say, and um, Rodrigo Blankenship undoubtedly wins the award this week for many fascinating press convention. Apparently, the Colts kicker is greatest mates with Ric Aptitude. Not solely are they mates, however Rodrigo really acquired an invitation to Aptitude’s seventieth party again in February 2019. I really bumped into Ric Aptitude in a lodge foyer three weeks earlier than his seventieth birthday and he did not say something a few celebration. Nonetheless unsure how I did not rating an invitation (You’ll be able to see the image I took of Aptitude — who’s posing with CBS Sports activities NFL author and big Aptitude fan, Ryan Wilson — by clicking right here).
Anyway, if you wish to understand how Rodrigo and Aptitude turned mates, you may should learn this story from the Indianapolis Star. If you wish to see an image of Ric Aptitude sporting a Rodrigo t-shirt with full rec specs, click on right here.
I am going to see you guys tomorrow and Ric Aptitude, if you happen to’re studying, I am going to gladly settle for an invitation to your seventy fifth birthday.