We’re making an attempt one thing a bit new this yr, as I’ll be taking a season-long experience we’re calling “The Bankroll Problem.”
Mainly, I’ll begin with 50 items to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and attempt to construct that bankroll as giant as doable. As a way to try this, I’ll save nearly all of my bankroll to make use of week-to-week, however betting futures has been worthwhile for me in current seasons, so I’ll need to sprinkle a few of that in as nicely.
This text goes to be the place my most assured performs go, so whereas a finest bets article could spotlight the highest 5 bets to think about one week, that is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most assured in, together with a unit quantity.
This text can even be a operating weblog, so search for extra performs to be dropped in all through the week with contemporary updates.
Yow will discover my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Problem right here.
DraftKings customers can get in on the motion by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.
After a very good begin, we’re coming off back-to-back duds. I put quite a lot of thought into this week, and as a lot as we need to leap into plus items, we are able to’t drive it. The Week 5 board is troublesome to start with, and COVID-19 problems aren’t making issues any simpler on us. Listed below are the positions I really feel are value investing in.
ARI -7 (-110) — threat 1.65 to win 1.5
As I wrote up in Greatest Bets, that is about as sq. a place as you possibly can tackle Week 5, however that doesn’t imply it’s incorrect. Betting the Cardinals will in all probability be essentially the most public play in Week 5, however you possibly can’t speak me out of fading the Jets. Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, no matter. So long as Adam Gase is the top coach, I’ll proceed fading. The Jets are 0-4 ATS, failing to cowl by greater than 10 factors per recreation. Possibly the Cardinals aren’t the breakout staff we thought they’d be after the 2-0 begin, however they’re in a spectacular place to bounce again from consecutive losses, each as slight favorites.
NYG Workforce Whole: OVER 22.5 (-110) — threat 1.65 to win 1.5
Say what you need about Daniel Jones and this Giants offense, however this can be a utterly totally different spot than they’ve been in all season. The G-Males have confronted the Steelers, Bears, 49ers and Rams to date, all loaded with expertise on protection. In the meantime, the Cowboys have surrendered 42 factors per recreation over the previous three weeks, giving Danny Dimes his first optimistic matchup of the season. Jones has put up some large video games prior to now, and this looks like a spot he can get the offense going for 23-plus. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants rating 35 on this recreation.
Kareem Hunt Dashing Yards: UNDER 74.5 (-112) — threat 1.68 to win 1.5
Hunt shall be a well-liked DFS play this week with Nick Chubb sidelined and might be the place some eyes go for participant props. Whereas Hunt could make performs as a pass-catcher and have an enormous recreation, I simply need to key in on an inflated dashing prop in opposition to a high of the road Indy run protection. The Colts are permitting simply 77 dashing yards per recreation, which ranks fourth within the NFL, and are coming off a Week 4 exhibiting by which they gave up 28 dashing yards to the Bears. Hunt is averaging 68.8 dashing yards per recreation this season, so I perceive why it could really feel uncomfortable betting an underneath right here with Chubb out of the RB rotation, however I don’t assume the Browns will lean on Hunt all that rather more. He’s already been extraordinarily concerned and the remainder of Cleveland’s backfield mixed for 18 carries after Chubb left final Sunday’s recreation. That would imply Hunt sees his normal 12 to fifteen carries, making this quantity a tricky one to hit in opposition to an elite run protection.
BAL/KC/ARI (-118) — threat 2.36 to win 2
Attempting to get an inexpensive win right here, however these really feel like sturdy sufficient spots to belief. The Ravens and Chiefs won’t cowl double-digit spreads, however they aren’t shedding divisional dwelling video games to the Bengals and Raiders. And we lined the spot that the Cardinals are in, regardless of being on the highway, the matchup is simply too good to get a win. Arizona ought to be a well-liked survivor decide this week, and with good purpose.
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FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
WEEK 5 UNITS PENDING:
SEASON TOTAL: 11-20 (-10.35 UNITS)
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I’m a promoter at DraftKings and am additionally an avid fan and consumer (my username is jedlow) and will generally play on my private account within the video games that I supply recommendation on. Though I’ve expressed my private view on the video games and techniques above, they don’t essentially replicate the view(s) of DraftKings and I may additionally deploy totally different gamers and techniques than what I like to recommend above. I’m not an worker of DraftKings and would not have entry to any private data.
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