Rekindling received the Melbourne Cup for Eire and Joseph O’Brien in 2017.
Nick Seddon takes a take a look at the present image for the Melbourne Cup, and profiles the 5 fundamental protagonists for the race that stops a nation…
Tiger Moth, Aidan O’Brien – 5/1
Northern Hemisphere-bred three-year-olds (four-year-olds in Southern Hemisphere phrases) have a superb latest file within the Melbourne Cup, with Rekindling and Cross Counter obliging in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018, and Aidan O’Brien will probably be hoping that pattern continues as he bids to win the race for the primary time with Tiger Moth. He boasts an uncommon profile for such a crimson sizzling handicap, and the Australian handicappers have made no secret about the truth that they’ve discovered the duty of assessing him to be a very troublesome one – attributable to the truth that he is made simply 4 begins thus far. He has proven some good kind throughout that point, although, ending a head behind Santiago within the Irish Derby on the Curragh in June, and picked up a ample penalty to earn him a spot on this when profitable a Group 3 contest in actually good type on his most up-to-date begin at Leopardstown in September.
He’s technically untried over additional than a mile and a half, however there’s causes to suspect that he’ll get the Cup’s two-mile journey judged on his pedigree, whereas he wasn’t stopping on the line when storming house at Leopardstown final month. The reserving of a number of Group 1-winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a shrewd one by the Coolmore operation, and Tiger Moth appears to have a pleasant racing weight of 52.5kg for the large race. That’s about 08-03 in European phrases, and 12 horses have carried that weight or extra to victory this century. Certainly, the omens level to an enormous run from Tiger Moth, significantly once you notice that the Irish raider Media Puzzle carried the very same weight to victory again in 2002…
Odds right as of 2020-10-26 19:04:24 Odds
topic to vary.
Sir Dragonet, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace – 7/1
European racing followers will already know lots concerning the 2019 Epsom Derby favorite Sir Dragonet, and whereas he by no means fairly lived as much as his considerable promise within the Northern Hemisphere whereas he was with Aidan O’Brien, he is made a superb begin to life in Australia, profitable Saturday’s Cox Plate at Moonee Valley. That success was Sir Dragonet’s first since hanging within the Chester Vase in Could 2019, and he definitely turned somewhat irritating on this facet of the world, struggling defeats at quick costs on every of his first three outings in 2020. His second behind Magical within the Tattersalls Gold Cup on the Curragh in July was a agency step again in the appropriate course, nevertheless, and he confirmed loads of class to surge by way of to win the Cox Plate on the weekend – a race which has produced seven winners of the Cup thus far.
That efficiency left his frazzled co-trainer Ciaron Maher thanking his non-existent sisters within the aftermath, and also you’d think about that his connections will probably be quietly assured of an enormous run at Flemington subsequent month. Sir Dragonet ought to remain the journey judged on his effort to complete fourth within the 2019 St Leger, and he escapes a penalty for his Cox Plate success by advantage of being a weight-for-age winner. Which means he’ll take his likelihood off 55.5kg (about 08-07), one which isn’t insurmountable contemplating that 4 winners this century have carried that weight or greater. He’ll formally depend as a ‘house’ winner attributable to now being Australian-trained, however a victory for Sir Dragonet will definitely add to the rising concept that Europe is slowly taking on Australia’s most well-known race.
Unbelievable. Sir Dragonet has received the one centesimal version of the #CoxPlate100 for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. https://t.co/clwk9P2Eav
Shock Child, Paul Preusker – 9/1
Shock Child is likely one of the main house challengers for the Melbourne Cup, and the six-year-old has earlier within the race, having completed fifth in final yr’s renewal – three quarters of a size behind the winner Vow And Declare. Like Tiger Moth this yr, he’d had only a handful of begins previous to lining up at Flemington, 5 to be exact, and he got here from an terrible great distance again to grab fifth within the closing phases, being nearest on the line. He took his likelihood off 53.5kg final yr, and there is definitely a case to be made that he can put up the same effort off simply 1kg greater this time round, significantly if handed a barely extra attacking trip.
He is been somewhat lightly-raced as soon as once more this yr, making simply two outings, and having completed second on reappearance in a Group 2 contest at Moonee Valley in September, he may solely end ninth within the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over a mile and 1 / 4 right here final trip. He was solely crushed two and a half lengths that day, nevertheless, and can admire the return to 2 miles. Stamina appears to very a lot be his sport, and though he’ll want to lift his sport off revised phrases, a slight tweak in techniques may see him go very shut certainly for his coach Paul Preusker – who’s but to win a Group 1 contest.
Verry Elleegant, Chris Waller – 10/1
The bizarrely spelt Verry Elleegant represents Chris Waller, who is maybe finest recognized on these shores for coaching the marvel mare Winx. The five-year-old mare is well-travelled, profitable 9 occasions from 21 begins, and arrives right here on the again of a superb success in final week’s Caulfield Cup. She’s untried at something additional than a mile and a half, however has received 3 times in 4 begins on the journey, and definitely wasn’t stopping when holding off the problem of Anthony Van Dyck final trip. She’s been raised half a kilo to a racing weight of 55.5kg, and whereas that is definitely inside attain so far as the historical past books are involved, mares do not have an excellent file within the Cup.
Certainly, solely 13 mares have ever received the race (plus an extra three fillies), however her kind definitely does have a powerful look to it – ending second behind the following Champion Stakes winner Addeybb at Rosehill in April. She definitely appeals as a probable kind for the Cup, and the retention of jockey Mark Zahra is definitely an excellent transfer, contemplating that they’ve received back-to-back Group 1 contests collectively. Ten Caulfield Cup winners have gone on to comply with up within the Melbourne Cup, however the feeling is that as likeable because the six-time Group 1 winner Verry Elleegant is, she would doubtless want a profession finest effort if she is to take this.
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Anthony Van Dyck, Aidan O’Brien – 10/1
The type of the 2019 Epsom Derby has lengthy been panned as abnormal, and though Anthony Van Dyck largely struggled after his basic win final time period, he is very a lot come into his personal this season. Certainly, he started his marketing campaign with a superb effort to complete second behind Ghaiyyath (who broke the monitor file) within the Coronation Cup in June, and he constructed on that by selecting up his first success since Epsom when taking the notable scalp of Stradivarius on his third begin of the marketing campaign within the Group 2 Prix Foy at Longchamp. Possible lots within the Melbourne Cup line-up, he is strictly untried over additional than a mile and a half, however there’s all the time been a sense that Anthony Van Dyck would get additional if required, and he confirmed an excellent mixture of pace and stamina when profitable from the entrance in Paris in September.
He hasn’t taken lengthy to make an influence since touchdown in Australia, both, and completed a high quality second behind Verry Eleegant within the Caulfield Cup earlier this month, having made his transfer from additional again than the eventual winner. He ran all the best way to the road that day, and allowing for that he received a key trial for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe when defeating Stradivarius final month, it is nearly a tip in itself that Aidan O’Brien opted to focus on this race as an alternative of the Arc. If he’s to win this, although, he could have to take action off a high weight of 58.5kg, and it is price noting that no horse has defied that specific determine since Assume Massive all the best way again in 1975 – although Makybe Diva did efficiently carry 58kg to victory when finishing a hat-trick of wins in 2005. The Melbourne Cup is likely one of the few huge prizes that also eludes O’Brien (although his son received it three years in the past with Rekindling), and it definitely seems like this yr’s squad is his finest likelihood but of scooping the prize.
She’s a sensational mare. 👌
@cwallerracing will get his first Caulfield Cup as Verry Elleegant wins in trendy style from Anthony Van Dyck. 🙏 https://t.co/RZtnFy9vH0
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